Suburb Data with Damien & Jeremy

EBS 16: Cheap Markets | Why They Fall the Least

Episode 16 tests the claim that cheap property markets are the riskiest in tough times. Looking at five national market corrections across the past 45 years, we group markets by price and compare how they performed when growth stalled or turned negative. In every case, the cheaper markets held up better than the expensive ones, directly contradicting the common advice that lower priced areas fall the hardest. The takeaway is simple. Cheap markets are not automatically unsafe, and broad claims about risk should be tested against real data, not repeated as fact.
 
Episode Highlights:00:00 - Introduction02:02 - Do cheaper markets underperform during downtimes?09:28 - Market correction of 2008-200910:59 - Tough time of 2011-201211:36 - Market correction 2018-201912:44 - Early 2022-2023 downturn14:15 - Why?17:17 - Conclusion
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Got questions or feedback?Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
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Viewer Favourites👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering/Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and More - https://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw👉 How to Analyse a Property Market - https://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs👉 DSR Success Rate - https://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorials - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
 
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DISCLAIMER:Please be aware that the content presented in this video is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
 
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on the content of this video, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the Listener, Reader, or Viewer.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by viewers based on the information in this video are at their own risk.

EBS 15: Vacancy Rates | Why 3% Is NOT ‘Balanced’

In this episode we challenge the idea that a 2 or 3 percent vacancy rate is the sign of a balanced rental market. Using national data, city level comparisons and long term vacancy and rent growth trends, we show that today’s market is far tighter, with balance looking closer to 1 percent in many cases. The episode also explains how vacancy is measured, why the relationship between vacancy and rent growth is real but not exact, and why investors should stop using hard vacancy cut offs to rule markets in or out. The takeaway is simple. Read vacancy in context, understand what it says about rental pressure, and let the broader data do the heavy lifting.
 
Episode Highlights:
00:00 - Introduction
01:10 - How is vacancy rate calculated
04:20 - Typical vacancy now - Houses
07:58 - Typical vacancy now - Units
08:56 - Melbourne vacancy now - Houses
09:49 - State capitals vacancy history - Houses
12:22 - Australia vacancy vs rental growth - Houses
18:46 - What indicates balance?
23:10 - Jeremy’s advice
28:17 - Conclusion
 
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Got questions or feedback?
Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
 
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Viewer Favourites
👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering/Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and More - https://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw
👉 How to Analyse a Property Market - https://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs
👉 DSR Success Rate - https://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo
👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorials - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
 
=============================================================
 
DISCLAIMER:
Please be aware that the content presented in this video is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
 
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.
• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on the content of this video, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the Listener, Reader, or Viewer.
• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.
• Any actions taken by viewers based on the information in this video are at their own risk.

EBS 14: Infrastructure Projects | Big Projects, Little Payoff

Episode 14 examines the belief that infrastructure projects drive capital growth. Using long run ABS data, project level case studies and a review of more than 120 individual projects, we show that most infrastructure has little to no reliable link to stronger price growth.
In many cases, the relationship appears to run the other way, with rising property values helping fund new projects rather than projects driving the gains. We also assess the track record of infrastructure based hotspot reports and find the results are inconsistent and often no better than broad market selection.
The takeaway is simple. Infrastructure may improve an area, but it is overrated as a growth strategy and should never be treated as proof that prices will rise.
 
Episode Highlights:
00:00 - Introduction
02:28 - Construction activity vs 3 year capital growth
05:15 - 3 Year construction activity vs 3 year capital growth
07:44 - 6 Year construction activity vs 6 year capital growth
09:06 - 6 year capital growth vs 6 Year construction activity
10:00 - Why price growth leads to infra growth?
13:55 - Non-residential building activity vs 3 year house growth
15:00 - 6 year non-residential building activity vs 6 year house growth
15:50 - 2 year house price growth vs 2 year building activity
16:23 - ABS: Private sector capital expenditure
17:17 - 3 year capital expenditure vs 2 year house growth
18:38 - Specific infrastructure projects
24:49 - Suburb Data Example: Historical charts
28:38 - 120 Projects: 95% FAILED
31:04 - An infrastructure expert
46:02 - Expert vs DSR v1
50:10 - Expert vs DSR Plus v2
51:33 - Expert vs DSR 3 v3
53:12 - Experts recent research and reports
55:13 - Experts recents vs DSR 3
58:32 - Conclusion
 
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Got questions or feedback?
Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
 
=============================================================
 
Viewer Favourites
👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering/Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and More - https://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw
👉 How to Analyse a Property Market - https://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs
👉 DSR Success Rate - https://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo
👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorials - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
 
=============================================================
 
DISCLAIMER:
Please be aware that the content presented in this video is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
 
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.
• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on the content of this video, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the Listener, Reader, or Viewer.
• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.
• Any actions taken by viewers based on the information in this video are at their own risk.

EBS 13: Time in vs Timing | Why Timing Beats Patience

Episode 13 asks whether time-in the market beats timing the market. We test a simple trading simulator that times entry by buying when Market Cycle Timing is high and times exit by selling when MCT normalises. The simulator includes all entry and exit costs.
Trading is then compared with holding long-term. Across SA3 regions and multiple eras, trading beat holding long-term, with a success rate between 80 and 95 percent depending on the period.
It works because growth tends to arrive in bursts and long holds converge toward the average.
The takeaway is to use data to time entry and exit rather than wait. Only default to long-term holds when you cannot forecast growth.
 
Episode Highlights00:00 - Introduction00:49 - Timing vs Time-in the market02:27 - Holding long term03:38 - Trading property06:47 - Trading property, works!08:40 - Simulator10:27 - Buying and selling rules14:56 - Reallocating equity16:12 - Caveats18:59 - Simulation run 128:31 - Simulation run 229:47 - 35 year performance44:31 - 25 year performance45:19 - 20 year performance46:27 - 15 year performance46:53 - Conclusion
 
Got questions or feedback?Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
Viewer Favourites👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering and Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and Morehttps://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw
👉 How to Analyse a Property Markethttps://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs
👉 DSR Success Ratehttps://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo
👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorialshttps://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
DISCLAIMERPlease be aware that the content presented in this episode is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on this content, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the listener, reader, or viewer.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by listeners based on this content are at their own risk.

EBS 12: Long-Term Growth | Why Short-Term Wins Matter More

Episode 12 argues for a short term, data led focus. Most outperformance happens in bursts, long term leaders tend to revert, and rotating into the next tight market can beat buy and hold even after costs.
We show how modern forecasting and timely market metrics lift your hit rate, while long range bets are unreliable and exposed to unknown future technologies.
The takeaway is clear. Capture short runs when supply and demand align and stay agile.
Episode Highlights00:00 - Introduction00:50 - Pop quiz05:16 - Trading property07:59 - Growth forecasts08:44 - Apples vs oranges11:23 - Short-term radical difference14:07 - Learn quickly17:57 - Most growth is recent23:42 - Nature of compounding28:52 - Realistic stereo-typical growth profile31:38 - Less risk of technology change36:19 - A.I and better data37:07 - Conclusion
Got questions or feedback?Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
Viewer Favourites👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering and Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and Morehttps://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw
👉 How to Analyse a Property Markethttps://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs
👉 DSR Success Ratehttps://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo
👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorialshttps://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
DISCLAIMERPlease be aware that the content presented in this episode is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on this content, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the listener, reader, or viewer.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by listeners based on this content are at their own risk.

EBS 11: Apples, Oranges & the Ripple Effect | Why Long-Term Outperformance Is a Myth

Episode 11 shows why long term outperformance is a myth. National multi-decade historical data shows extremes fade. Markets converge to the long-term average. The growth leaders of the past become the laggards of the future as buyer focus shifts to better value.
The takeaway is to avoid betting on a permanent edge. But if you must, favour houses over units, old over new, and avoid supply-heavy vacant land corridors.
 
Episode Highlights00:00 - Introduction00:50 - Apples vs Oranges02:52 - Fruit vs Property05:54 - Cheaper alternatives create the ripple effect07:06 - Capital growth cases17:50 - Long term, all markets tend to grow at the same rate19:42 - Unrealistic stereotypical growth profile20:51 - Realistic stereotypical growth profile24:26 - What has worked?25:39 - New amenities28:44 - Conclusion
 
Got questions or feedback?Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
Viewer Favourites👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering and Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and Morehttps://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw
👉 How to Analyse a Property Markethttps://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs
👉 DSR Success Ratehttps://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo
👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorialshttps://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
DISCLAIMERPlease be aware that the content presented in this episode is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on this content, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the listener, reader, or viewer.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by listeners based on this content are at their own risk.

EBS 10: Property Growth History | Why Past Growth ≠ Future Growth

Episode 10 dismantles the idea that strong past growth predicts strong future growth. We show why backtesting single properties is misleading, explain that features set price rather than growth, and reveal a clear inverse relationship in the data when you group suburbs by their last 10 to 20 years of performance.
Markets that have run hard tend to slow as higher prices dampen demand, while laggards often lead the next cycle.
The takeaway is simple. Do not buy on long term outperformance alone. Rely on broad, current supply and demand signals and be ready to rotate your capital when a run has played out.
Episode Highlights00:00 - Introduction00:50 - Back testing07:38 - Past growth vs future growth20:13 - Apples vs oranges21:46 - What’s the point?24:37 - Misleading growth history27:56 - Conclusion
🎙️ Watch all Expert Busting episodes:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGg14F66DTdoZuS63mUJwJ82
📚 Read the full data-backed articles:https://suburbdata.com.au/education-expert-busting/
🔎 Learn how to use Suburb Data to analyse property data:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGhDsFFEMdzP5fvfenYvbp0B
Expert Busting SeriesA data-driven investigation into property myths.We fact-check bold claims, expose misleading advice, and reveal what the numbers actually say.Evidence over confidence. Data over hype.
#expertbustingseries #propertymyths #australianproperty #propertyinvesting #datadriveninvesting #suburbdata #DSR #propertytruths #realestateinvesting
DISCLAIMERPlease be aware that the content presented in this episode is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on this content.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by listeners based on this content are at their own risk.

EBS 9: Knock-Out Bids | Why They Don’t Win Auctions

Episode 9 debunks the idea of the knockout bid at auction. We show why large, dramatic jumps do not scare bidders who still have room in their budget and why the highest budget wins, not the boldest call.
Clear examples reveal how a knockout bid can backfire by pushing the price above the minimum needed, costing the buyer thousands. We set a simple test for anyone claiming the tactic works: prove the losing bidder had more to spend and still walked away.
We also unpack common auction theatre like arriving early, taking centre stage, or wearing sunglasses, and explain why none of it changes the outcome.
The takeaway is clear. Be wary of the marketing BS from fake experts.
Episode Highlights:00:00 - Introduction00:43 - What is a “knock-out” bid?02:37 - Prep-work03:26 - Bidding walkthrough14:09 - When it works - 3 points19:59 - More nonsense action advice23:01 - Conclusion
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🎙️ Watch all Expert Busting episodes:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGg14F66DTdoZuS63mUJwJ82
📚 Read the full data-backed articles:https://suburbdata.com.au/education-expert-busting/
🔎 Learn how to use Suburb Data to analyse property data:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGhDsFFEMdzP5fvfenYvbp0B
=============================================================
Expert Busting SeriesA data-driven investigation into property myths.We fact-check bold claims, expose misleading advice, and reveal what the numbers actually say.Evidence over confidence. Data over hype.
#expertbustingseries #propertymyths #australianproperty #propertyinvesting #datadriveninvesting #suburbdata #DSR #propertytruths #realestateinvesting
=============================================================
DISCLAIMER:Please be aware that the content presented in this episode is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on this content, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the Listener, Reader, or Viewer.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by viewers based on this content are at their own risk.

EBS 8: Buy Well | Why You Don’t Make Money When You Buy

Episode 8 busts the myth that you make money when you buy. We show why purchase is a cost-heavy entry point with stamp duty, conveyancing, inspections, time and often repairs, so returns come from holding through capital growth and rent.
We explain why buying under market value usually signals a weak market where supply beats demand, why the price you pay becomes the new market value in the valuer’s eyes, and how chasing small discounts can mean missing larger gains in strong markets.
The takeaway is clear. Focus on locations with real buyer competition, be willing to pay “above fair value” when needed, and make your money by holding in the right market rather than squeezing the purchase price in the wrong market.
Episode Highlights:00:00 - Introduction01:04 - What you lose when you buy?02:31 - Who makes money when you buy?04:43 - Example07:29 - What is your focus?09:00 - Conclusion
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Got questions or feedback?Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
=============================================================
Viewer Favourites:👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering/Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and More - https://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw👉 How to Analyse a Property Market - https://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs👉 DSR Success Rate - https://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorials - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
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DISCLAIMER:Please be aware that the content presented in this episode is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on this content, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the Listener, Reader, or Viewer.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by viewers based on this content are at their own risk.

EBS 7: Depreciation | How Depreciation Hurts Capital Growth

Episode 7 shows there is no such thing as depreciation “benefits”. Depreciation is a detriment, not a benefit. We explain what depreciation really is, the unavoidable loss in a building’s value, and why tax deductions do not make you richer.
Clear examples show how a $10,000 claim might cut your tax by $4,000 yet still leave you $6,000 worse off, and how Division 43 claims reduce your cost base and increase future capital gains tax.
We separate depreciation from repairs, outline prime cost versus diminishing value methods, and test the theory against real markets, including off the plan units in Zetland that went backwards.
The rule of thumb is simple. Minimise depreciation, maximise land value, and favour established, supply constrained locations with room to add value.
Episode Highlights:00:00 - Introduction00:40 - What is depreciation?07:26 - Divisions of tax law10:52 - Diminishing value and prime cost12:30 - Capital growth13:21 - Tax example17:56 - You don’t get it all back19:41 - Maintenance21:18 - Example - Back deck30:16 - Depreciation “Benefits”34:04 - Selling35:11 - Bad advice40:44 - High depreciation properties45:13 - Conclusion
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🎙️ Watch all Expert Busting episodes:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGg14F66DTdoZuS63mUJwJ82
📚 Read the full data-backed articles:https://suburbdata.com.au/education-expert-busting/
🔎 Learn how to use Suburb Data to analyse property data:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGhDsFFEMdzP5fvfenYvbp0B
=============================================================
Expert Busting SeriesA data-driven investigation into property myths.We fact-check bold claims, expose misleading advice, and reveal what the numbers actually say.Evidence over confidence. Data over hype.
#expertbustingseries #propertymyths #australianproperty #propertyinvesting #datadriveninvesting #suburbdata #DSR #propertytruths #realestateinvesting
=============================================================
DISCLAIMERPlease be aware that the content presented in this episode is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on this content.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by listeners based on this content are at their own risk.