EBS 11: Apples, Oranges & the Ripple Effect | Why Long-Term Outperformance Is a Myth

Episode 11 shows why long term outperformance is a myth. National multi-decade historical data shows extremes fade. Markets converge to the long-term average. The growth leaders of the past become the laggards of the future as buyer focus shifts to better value.

The takeaway is to avoid betting on a permanent edge. But if you must, favour houses over units, old over new, and avoid supply-heavy vacant land corridors.

 

Episode Highlights
00:00 - Introduction
00:50 - Apples vs Oranges
02:52 - Fruit vs Property
05:54 - Cheaper alternatives create the ripple effect
07:06 - Capital growth cases
17:50 - Long term, all markets tend to grow at the same rate
19:42 - Unrealistic stereotypical growth profile
20:51 - Realistic stereotypical growth profile
24:26 - What has worked?
25:39 - New amenities
28:44 - Conclusion

 

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