Suburb Data with Damien & Jeremy

EBS 20: Buying at the Bottom | Why It Rarely Works Out

Episode 20 tests the advice to buy at the bottom of the market. We show how hard it is to identify a true bottom in real time, and why flat periods can drag on for years or produce false signs of recovery.
Using historical data across hundreds of markets, we compare buying after a decline with buying into a boom and find that the stronger results usually come from markets already showing clear upward momentum.
The takeaway is simple. Buying at the bottom sounds appealing, but buying into a genuine boom is often the better strategy.
 
Episode Highlights:
00:00 - Introduction
01:56 - What is buying at the bottom?
02:28 - How do you know when a market is at the bottom?
05:46 - Alternative areas to invest in
13:27 - Sydney example
15:00 - Buy at the bottom formula
20:35 - Buy in a boom formula
22:10 - Buying in a boom performance
30:16 - Why is late better than early?
35:22 - How long?
36:28 - Conclusion
=============================================================
Got questions or feedback? Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
=============================================================
 
Viewer Favourites 👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering/Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and More - https://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw 👉 How to Analyse a Property Market - https://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs 👉 DSR Success Rate - https://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo 👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorials - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
 
=============================================================
 
DISCLAIMER: Please be aware that the content presented in this video is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
 
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation. • It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on the content of this video, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the Listener, Reader, or Viewer. • We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services. • Any actions taken by viewers based on the information in this video are at their own risk.

EBS 19: Desirable Areas | Why They Don't Deliver the Best Growth

Episode 19 challenges the idea that desirable areas are always in high demand. We explain the difference between appeal and true market demand, showing that prices rise when buyers have both the desire and the capacity to compete, not simply because an area has attractive features.
Using historical examples and broader market data, we show that affluent, highly desirable locations can underperform or fall harder when affordability cuts demand, while cheaper markets often prove more resilient.
The takeaway is simple. Features may shape a property’s price today, but future capital growth is driven by supply and demand, not by how desirable an area appears.
 
Episode Highlights:00:00 - Introduction02:22 - The ripple effect03:27 - Market corrections08:25 - Features vs demand11:39 - Are features useless?13:27 - Conclusion
 
=============================================================
 
Got questions or feedback?Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
 
=============================================================
 
Viewer Favourites👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering/Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and More - https://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw👉 How to Analyse a Property Market - https://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs👉 DSR Success Rate - https://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorials - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
 
=============================================================
 
DISCLAIMER:Please be aware that the content presented in this video is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
 
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on the content of this video, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the Listener, Reader, or Viewer.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by viewers based on the information in this video are at their own risk.

EBS 18: Buying Under the Median | Why It Doesn’t Give You an Edge

Episode 18 challenges the advice to buy under the suburb median. We explain why the median has nothing to do with what an individual property is worth, and why real value is determined by recent sales of similar properties nearby, not a suburb wide price marker.
The episode shows how this strategy can mislead investors, cause them to ignore half the market, and waste valuable time in rising conditions.
The takeaway is simple. Buying under the median does not give you an edge. What matters is buying the right property in the right market at fair value.
 
Episode Highlights:
00:00 - Introduction
01:03 - Suburb median has no relation to value of any property
01:29 - What is median and how is it calculated?
02:55 - Comparable market analysis
04:35 - Buying below the median
08:15 - Real-world examples
15:02 - Opportunity cost
17:35 - Hypothetical
18:50 - Conclusion
 
=============================================================
Got questions or feedback? Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
=============================================================
 
Viewer Favourites 👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering/Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and More - https://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw 👉 How to Analyse a Property Market - https://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs 👉 DSR Success Rate - https://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo 👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorials - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
 
=============================================================
 
DISCLAIMER: Please be aware that the content presented in this video is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
 
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation. • It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on the content of this video, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the Listener, Reader, or Viewer. • We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services. • Any actions taken by viewers based on the information in this video are at their own risk.

EBS 17: Public Housing | Does It Really Hurt Capital Growth?

Episode 17 tests the claim that public housing hurts capital growth. Using census data from 2006 to 2021, we compare suburbs with low and high levels of public housing and find no meaningful difference in long term price growth. We also examine changes in public housing over time and show they do not provide a reliable signal for future growth either. The episode goes further by looking at yield and vacancy, finding that higher public housing areas can still deliver solid rental performance. The takeaway is simple. Public housing may affect a suburb’s price point, but the data does not support the idea that it damages growth.
 
Episode Highlights:00:00 - Introduction01:13 - What is public housing?02:54 - Examples of public housing numbers05:27 - Relationship between govt. housing and long term growth11:43 - Why public housing has not impact on capital growth14:03 - 15 year change in public housing vs capital growth20:05 - 10 year change in public housing vs capital growth21:47 - 5 year change in public housing vs capital growth23:11 - Why?27:55 - Public housing vs gross yield29:06 - Public housing vs vacancy rate29:39 - Why?33:37 - Public housing vs typical value36:25 - How to counter problem tenants38:05 - Conclusion
 
=============================================================
Got questions or feedback?Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
=============================================================
Viewer Favourites👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering/Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and More - https://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw👉 How to Analyse a Property Market - https://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs👉 DSR Success Rate - https://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorials - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
=============================================================
 
DISCLAIMER:Please be aware that the content presented in this video is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on the content of this video, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the Listener, Reader, or Viewer.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by viewers based on the information in this video are at their own risk.

Ep. 54 - Federal Budget 2026 Are Property Investors Being Pushed Out

In this episode, we break down the 2026 Federal Budget and what the proposed tax changes could mean for property investors, renters and first home buyers. We examine the planned changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, explain how grandfathering works, and discuss the likely flow on effects for borrowing power, serviceability and long term portfolio growth. Our conversation also explores whether the reforms will genuinely improve affordability or simply shift pressure elsewhere in the market.We suggest likely winners and losers, including new builds, regional markets, units, commercial property and self managed super funds.
=============================================================
Got questions or feedback?Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
=============================================================
Viewer Favourites👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering/Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and More - https://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw👉 How to Analyse a Property Market - https://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs👉 DSR Success Rate - https://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorials - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
=============================================================
DISCLAIMER:Please be aware that the content presented in this video is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on the content of this video, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the Listener, Reader, or Viewer.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by viewers based on the information in this video are at their own risk.

EBS 16: Cheap Markets | Why They Fall the Least

Episode 16 tests the claim that cheap property markets are the riskiest in tough times. Looking at five national market corrections across the past 45 years, we group markets by price and compare how they performed when growth stalled or turned negative. In every case, the cheaper markets held up better than the expensive ones, directly contradicting the common advice that lower priced areas fall the hardest. The takeaway is simple. Cheap markets are not automatically unsafe, and broad claims about risk should be tested against real data, not repeated as fact.
 
Episode Highlights:00:00 - Introduction02:02 - Do cheaper markets underperform during downtimes?09:28 - Market correction of 2008-200910:59 - Tough time of 2011-201211:36 - Market correction 2018-201912:44 - Early 2022-2023 downturn14:15 - Why?17:17 - Conclusion
=============================================================
Got questions or feedback?Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
=============================================================
 
Viewer Favourites👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering/Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and More - https://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw👉 How to Analyse a Property Market - https://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs👉 DSR Success Rate - https://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorials - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
 
=============================================================
 
DISCLAIMER:Please be aware that the content presented in this video is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
 
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on the content of this video, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the Listener, Reader, or Viewer.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by viewers based on the information in this video are at their own risk.

EBS 15: Vacancy Rates | Why 3% Is NOT ‘Balanced’

In this episode we challenge the idea that a 2 or 3 percent vacancy rate is the sign of a balanced rental market. Using national data, city level comparisons and long term vacancy and rent growth trends, we show that today’s market is far tighter, with balance looking closer to 1 percent in many cases. The episode also explains how vacancy is measured, why the relationship between vacancy and rent growth is real but not exact, and why investors should stop using hard vacancy cut offs to rule markets in or out. The takeaway is simple. Read vacancy in context, understand what it says about rental pressure, and let the broader data do the heavy lifting.
 
Episode Highlights:
00:00 - Introduction
01:10 - How is vacancy rate calculated
04:20 - Typical vacancy now - Houses
07:58 - Typical vacancy now - Units
08:56 - Melbourne vacancy now - Houses
09:49 - State capitals vacancy history - Houses
12:22 - Australia vacancy vs rental growth - Houses
18:46 - What indicates balance?
23:10 - Jeremy’s advice
28:17 - Conclusion
 
=============================================================
 
Got questions or feedback?
Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
 
=============================================================
 
Viewer Favourites
👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering/Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and More - https://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw
👉 How to Analyse a Property Market - https://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs
👉 DSR Success Rate - https://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo
👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorials - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
 
=============================================================
 
DISCLAIMER:
Please be aware that the content presented in this video is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
 
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.
• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on the content of this video, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the Listener, Reader, or Viewer.
• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.
• Any actions taken by viewers based on the information in this video are at their own risk.

EBS 14: Infrastructure Projects | Big Projects, Little Payoff

Episode 14 examines the belief that infrastructure projects drive capital growth. Using long run ABS data, project level case studies and a review of more than 120 individual projects, we show that most infrastructure has little to no reliable link to stronger price growth.
In many cases, the relationship appears to run the other way, with rising property values helping fund new projects rather than projects driving the gains. We also assess the track record of infrastructure based hotspot reports and find the results are inconsistent and often no better than broad market selection.
The takeaway is simple. Infrastructure may improve an area, but it is overrated as a growth strategy and should never be treated as proof that prices will rise.
 
Episode Highlights:
00:00 - Introduction
02:28 - Construction activity vs 3 year capital growth
05:15 - 3 Year construction activity vs 3 year capital growth
07:44 - 6 Year construction activity vs 6 year capital growth
09:06 - 6 year capital growth vs 6 Year construction activity
10:00 - Why price growth leads to infra growth?
13:55 - Non-residential building activity vs 3 year house growth
15:00 - 6 year non-residential building activity vs 6 year house growth
15:50 - 2 year house price growth vs 2 year building activity
16:23 - ABS: Private sector capital expenditure
17:17 - 3 year capital expenditure vs 2 year house growth
18:38 - Specific infrastructure projects
24:49 - Suburb Data Example: Historical charts
28:38 - 120 Projects: 95% FAILED
31:04 - An infrastructure expert
46:02 - Expert vs DSR v1
50:10 - Expert vs DSR Plus v2
51:33 - Expert vs DSR 3 v3
53:12 - Experts recent research and reports
55:13 - Experts recents vs DSR 3
58:32 - Conclusion
 
=============================================================
 
Got questions or feedback?
Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
 
=============================================================
 
Viewer Favourites
👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering/Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and More - https://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw
👉 How to Analyse a Property Market - https://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs
👉 DSR Success Rate - https://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo
👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorials - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
 
=============================================================
 
DISCLAIMER:
Please be aware that the content presented in this video is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
 
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.
• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on the content of this video, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the Listener, Reader, or Viewer.
• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.
• Any actions taken by viewers based on the information in this video are at their own risk.

EBS 13: Time in vs Timing | Why Timing Beats Patience

Episode 13 asks whether time-in the market beats timing the market. We test a simple trading simulator that times entry by buying when Market Cycle Timing is high and times exit by selling when MCT normalises. The simulator includes all entry and exit costs.
Trading is then compared with holding long-term. Across SA3 regions and multiple eras, trading beat holding long-term, with a success rate between 80 and 95 percent depending on the period.
It works because growth tends to arrive in bursts and long holds converge toward the average.
The takeaway is to use data to time entry and exit rather than wait. Only default to long-term holds when you cannot forecast growth.
 
Episode Highlights00:00 - Introduction00:49 - Timing vs Time-in the market02:27 - Holding long term03:38 - Trading property06:47 - Trading property, works!08:40 - Simulator10:27 - Buying and selling rules14:56 - Reallocating equity16:12 - Caveats18:59 - Simulation run 128:31 - Simulation run 229:47 - 35 year performance44:31 - 25 year performance45:19 - 20 year performance46:27 - 15 year performance46:53 - Conclusion
 
Got questions or feedback?Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
Viewer Favourites👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering and Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and Morehttps://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw
👉 How to Analyse a Property Markethttps://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs
👉 DSR Success Ratehttps://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo
👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorialshttps://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
DISCLAIMERPlease be aware that the content presented in this episode is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on this content, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the listener, reader, or viewer.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by listeners based on this content are at their own risk.

EBS 12: Long-Term Growth | Why Short-Term Wins Matter More

Episode 12 argues for a short term, data led focus. Most outperformance happens in bursts, long term leaders tend to revert, and rotating into the next tight market can beat buy and hold even after costs.
We show how modern forecasting and timely market metrics lift your hit rate, while long range bets are unreliable and exposed to unknown future technologies.
The takeaway is clear. Capture short runs when supply and demand align and stay agile.
Episode Highlights00:00 - Introduction00:50 - Pop quiz05:16 - Trading property07:59 - Growth forecasts08:44 - Apples vs oranges11:23 - Short-term radical difference14:07 - Learn quickly17:57 - Most growth is recent23:42 - Nature of compounding28:52 - Realistic stereo-typical growth profile31:38 - Less risk of technology change36:19 - A.I and better data37:07 - Conclusion
Got questions or feedback?Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
Viewer Favourites👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering and Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and Morehttps://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw
👉 How to Analyse a Property Markethttps://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs
👉 DSR Success Ratehttps://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo
👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorialshttps://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
DISCLAIMERPlease be aware that the content presented in this episode is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on this content, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the listener, reader, or viewer.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by listeners based on this content are at their own risk.