Suburb Data with Damien & Jeremy

EBS 13: Time in vs Timing | Why Timing Beats Patience

Episode 13 asks whether time-in the market beats timing the market. We test a simple trading simulator that times entry by buying when Market Cycle Timing is high and times exit by selling when MCT normalises. The simulator includes all entry and exit costs.
Trading is then compared with holding long-term. Across SA3 regions and multiple eras, trading beat holding long-term, with a success rate between 80 and 95 percent depending on the period.
It works because growth tends to arrive in bursts and long holds converge toward the average.
The takeaway is to use data to time entry and exit rather than wait. Only default to long-term holds when you cannot forecast growth.
 
Episode Highlights00:00 - Introduction00:49 - Timing vs Time-in the market02:27 - Holding long term03:38 - Trading property06:47 - Trading property, works!08:40 - Simulator10:27 - Buying and selling rules14:56 - Reallocating equity16:12 - Caveats18:59 - Simulation run 128:31 - Simulation run 229:47 - 35 year performance44:31 - 25 year performance45:19 - 20 year performance46:27 - 15 year performance46:53 - Conclusion
 
Got questions or feedback?Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
Viewer Favourites👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering and Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and Morehttps://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw
👉 How to Analyse a Property Markethttps://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs
👉 DSR Success Ratehttps://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo
👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorialshttps://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
DISCLAIMERPlease be aware that the content presented in this episode is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on this content, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the listener, reader, or viewer.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by listeners based on this content are at their own risk.

EBS 12: Long-Term Growth | Why Short-Term Wins Matter More

Episode 12 argues for a short term, data led focus. Most outperformance happens in bursts, long term leaders tend to revert, and rotating into the next tight market can beat buy and hold even after costs.
We show how modern forecasting and timely market metrics lift your hit rate, while long range bets are unreliable and exposed to unknown future technologies.
The takeaway is clear. Capture short runs when supply and demand align and stay agile.
Episode Highlights00:00 - Introduction00:50 - Pop quiz05:16 - Trading property07:59 - Growth forecasts08:44 - Apples vs oranges11:23 - Short-term radical difference14:07 - Learn quickly17:57 - Most growth is recent23:42 - Nature of compounding28:52 - Realistic stereo-typical growth profile31:38 - Less risk of technology change36:19 - A.I and better data37:07 - Conclusion
Got questions or feedback?Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
Viewer Favourites👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering and Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and Morehttps://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw
👉 How to Analyse a Property Markethttps://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs
👉 DSR Success Ratehttps://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo
👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorialshttps://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
DISCLAIMERPlease be aware that the content presented in this episode is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on this content, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the listener, reader, or viewer.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by listeners based on this content are at their own risk.

EBS 11: Apples, Oranges & the Ripple Effect | Why Long-Term Outperformance Is a Myth

Episode 11 shows why long term outperformance is a myth. National multi-decade historical data shows extremes fade. Markets converge to the long-term average. The growth leaders of the past become the laggards of the future as buyer focus shifts to better value.
The takeaway is to avoid betting on a permanent edge. But if you must, favour houses over units, old over new, and avoid supply-heavy vacant land corridors.
 
Episode Highlights00:00 - Introduction00:50 - Apples vs Oranges02:52 - Fruit vs Property05:54 - Cheaper alternatives create the ripple effect07:06 - Capital growth cases17:50 - Long term, all markets tend to grow at the same rate19:42 - Unrealistic stereotypical growth profile20:51 - Realistic stereotypical growth profile24:26 - What has worked?25:39 - New amenities28:44 - Conclusion
 
Got questions or feedback?Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
Viewer Favourites👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering and Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and Morehttps://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw
👉 How to Analyse a Property Markethttps://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs
👉 DSR Success Ratehttps://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo
👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorialshttps://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
DISCLAIMERPlease be aware that the content presented in this episode is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on this content, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the listener, reader, or viewer.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by listeners based on this content are at their own risk.

EBS 10: Property Growth History | Why Past Growth ≠ Future Growth

Episode 10 dismantles the idea that strong past growth predicts strong future growth. We show why backtesting single properties is misleading, explain that features set price rather than growth, and reveal a clear inverse relationship in the data when you group suburbs by their last 10 to 20 years of performance.
Markets that have run hard tend to slow as higher prices dampen demand, while laggards often lead the next cycle.
The takeaway is simple. Do not buy on long term outperformance alone. Rely on broad, current supply and demand signals and be ready to rotate your capital when a run has played out.
Episode Highlights00:00 - Introduction00:50 - Back testing07:38 - Past growth vs future growth20:13 - Apples vs oranges21:46 - What’s the point?24:37 - Misleading growth history27:56 - Conclusion
🎙️ Watch all Expert Busting episodes:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGg14F66DTdoZuS63mUJwJ82
📚 Read the full data-backed articles:https://suburbdata.com.au/education-expert-busting/
🔎 Learn how to use Suburb Data to analyse property data:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGhDsFFEMdzP5fvfenYvbp0B
Expert Busting SeriesA data-driven investigation into property myths.We fact-check bold claims, expose misleading advice, and reveal what the numbers actually say.Evidence over confidence. Data over hype.
#expertbustingseries #propertymyths #australianproperty #propertyinvesting #datadriveninvesting #suburbdata #DSR #propertytruths #realestateinvesting
DISCLAIMERPlease be aware that the content presented in this episode is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on this content.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by listeners based on this content are at their own risk.

EBS 9: Knock-Out Bids | Why They Don’t Win Auctions

Episode 9 debunks the idea of the knockout bid at auction. We show why large, dramatic jumps do not scare bidders who still have room in their budget and why the highest budget wins, not the boldest call.
Clear examples reveal how a knockout bid can backfire by pushing the price above the minimum needed, costing the buyer thousands. We set a simple test for anyone claiming the tactic works: prove the losing bidder had more to spend and still walked away.
We also unpack common auction theatre like arriving early, taking centre stage, or wearing sunglasses, and explain why none of it changes the outcome.
The takeaway is clear. Be wary of the marketing BS from fake experts.
Episode Highlights:00:00 - Introduction00:43 - What is a “knock-out” bid?02:37 - Prep-work03:26 - Bidding walkthrough14:09 - When it works - 3 points19:59 - More nonsense action advice23:01 - Conclusion
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🎙️ Watch all Expert Busting episodes:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGg14F66DTdoZuS63mUJwJ82
📚 Read the full data-backed articles:https://suburbdata.com.au/education-expert-busting/
🔎 Learn how to use Suburb Data to analyse property data:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGhDsFFEMdzP5fvfenYvbp0B
=============================================================
Expert Busting SeriesA data-driven investigation into property myths.We fact-check bold claims, expose misleading advice, and reveal what the numbers actually say.Evidence over confidence. Data over hype.
#expertbustingseries #propertymyths #australianproperty #propertyinvesting #datadriveninvesting #suburbdata #DSR #propertytruths #realestateinvesting
=============================================================
DISCLAIMER:Please be aware that the content presented in this episode is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on this content, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the Listener, Reader, or Viewer.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by viewers based on this content are at their own risk.

EBS 8: Buy Well | Why You Don’t Make Money When You Buy

Episode 8 busts the myth that you make money when you buy. We show why purchase is a cost-heavy entry point with stamp duty, conveyancing, inspections, time and often repairs, so returns come from holding through capital growth and rent.
We explain why buying under market value usually signals a weak market where supply beats demand, why the price you pay becomes the new market value in the valuer’s eyes, and how chasing small discounts can mean missing larger gains in strong markets.
The takeaway is clear. Focus on locations with real buyer competition, be willing to pay “above fair value” when needed, and make your money by holding in the right market rather than squeezing the purchase price in the wrong market.
Episode Highlights:00:00 - Introduction01:04 - What you lose when you buy?02:31 - Who makes money when you buy?04:43 - Example07:29 - What is your focus?09:00 - Conclusion
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Got questions or feedback?Email us: PODCAST (AT) SUBURBDATA.COM.AU
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Viewer Favourites:👉 Q&A with Jeremy Sheppard: Entering/Exiting Markets, Buyers Agents, Suburb Selection and More - https://youtu.be/nrxq5l2MIuw👉 How to Analyse a Property Market - https://youtu.be/TMgvL07LzXs👉 DSR Success Rate - https://youtu.be/tSBtiD1BLqo👉 Demand to Supply Ratio Tutorials - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGi7zCG37dRhAxXows2SZw7-
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DISCLAIMER:Please be aware that the content presented in this episode is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on this content, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the Listener, Reader, or Viewer.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by viewers based on this content are at their own risk.

EBS 7: Depreciation | How Depreciation Hurts Capital Growth

Episode 7 shows there is no such thing as depreciation “benefits”. Depreciation is a detriment, not a benefit. We explain what depreciation really is, the unavoidable loss in a building’s value, and why tax deductions do not make you richer.
Clear examples show how a $10,000 claim might cut your tax by $4,000 yet still leave you $6,000 worse off, and how Division 43 claims reduce your cost base and increase future capital gains tax.
We separate depreciation from repairs, outline prime cost versus diminishing value methods, and test the theory against real markets, including off the plan units in Zetland that went backwards.
The rule of thumb is simple. Minimise depreciation, maximise land value, and favour established, supply constrained locations with room to add value.
Episode Highlights:00:00 - Introduction00:40 - What is depreciation?07:26 - Divisions of tax law10:52 - Diminishing value and prime cost12:30 - Capital growth13:21 - Tax example17:56 - You don’t get it all back19:41 - Maintenance21:18 - Example - Back deck30:16 - Depreciation “Benefits”34:04 - Selling35:11 - Bad advice40:44 - High depreciation properties45:13 - Conclusion
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🎙️ Watch all Expert Busting episodes:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGg14F66DTdoZuS63mUJwJ82
📚 Read the full data-backed articles:https://suburbdata.com.au/education-expert-busting/
🔎 Learn how to use Suburb Data to analyse property data:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGhDsFFEMdzP5fvfenYvbp0B
=============================================================
Expert Busting SeriesA data-driven investigation into property myths.We fact-check bold claims, expose misleading advice, and reveal what the numbers actually say.Evidence over confidence. Data over hype.
#expertbustingseries #propertymyths #australianproperty #propertyinvesting #datadriveninvesting #suburbdata #DSR #propertytruths #realestateinvesting
=============================================================
DISCLAIMERPlease be aware that the content presented in this episode is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on this content.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by listeners based on this content are at their own risk.

EBS 6: High Wages | Why High Salary Doesn’t Mean High Growth

Episode 6 challenges the idea that higher wages drive higher capital growth. Using ABS census data across all suburbs since 1991, we group markets by household income and by income growth over 5 to 25 years and find no consistent link to future price gains.
The flaw is practical as well as statistical. Buyers can come from anywhere, census incomes are lagged and noisy, and borrowing capacity depends on more than wages. In many eras the pattern reverses, and higher prices can lift the incomes recorded later, not the other way around.
The takeaway is clear. Ignore wage and wage growth metrics when selecting suburbs and focus on what actually moves prices.
 
Episode Highlights:00:00 - Introduction01:15 - Buyers can come from anywhere07:58 - Household income vs Capital growth13:56 - 5 year growth — Household income vs Capital growth17:02 - 10 year growth — Household income vs Capital growth18:28 - 15 year growth — Household income vs Capital growth18:53 - 20 year growth — Household income vs Capital growth19:37 - 25 year growth — Household income vs Capital growth20:13 - Household income relative to state vs Capital growth21:24 - 5 year household income growth relative to state income growth vs Capital growth23:30 - Cause correlation26:02 Conclusion
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🎙️ Watch all Expert Busting episodes:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGg14F66DTdoZuS63mUJwJ82
📚 Read the full data-backed articles:https://suburbdata.com.au/education-expert-busting/
🔎 Learn how to use Suburb Data to analyse property data:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGhDsFFEMdzP5fvfenYvbp0B
=============================================================
Expert Busting SeriesA data-driven investigation into property myths.We fact-check bold claims, expose misleading advice, and reveal what the numbers actually say.Evidence over confidence. Data over hype.
#expertbustingseries #propertymyths #australianproperty #propertyinvesting #datadriveninvesting #suburbdata #DSR #propertytruths #realestateinvesting
=============================================================
DISCLAIMER:Please be aware that the content presented in this video is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on the content of this video, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the Listener, Reader, or Viewer.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by viewers based on the information in this video are at their own risk.

EBS 5: Proximity to CBD | Why Proximity to CBD is So Overrated

Episode 5 tackles the myth that buying closer to the CBD delivers superior capital growth. We unpack why past reports misled investors through tiny samples, uneven suburb spacing and single time frames, then replicate their methods across later periods to show the result often reverses.
We widen the analysis to thousands of suburbs across major cities and find no enduring link between distance to the CBD and higher growth. We also compare yield and volatility, showing inner ring markets often provide lower income and greater risk without a growth premium.
The message is simple. Do not stretch your budget to buy close in. Rely on broad data and test every claim across time.
Episode Highlights:00:00 - Introduction00:43 - Flawed past research01:49 - Debunking the Australian Housing Urban Research Institute (AHURI) report15:06 - AHURI flaws summary24:00 - How ratios change over long vs short history34:43 - Accurate charts based upon data40:25 - Distance from CBD vs Yield43:18 - Risk for investors to consider48:48 - Other considerations53:51 - Conclusion
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🎙️ Watch all Expert Busting episodes:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGg14F66DTdoZuS63mUJwJ82
📚 Read the full data-backed articles:https://suburbdata.com.au/education-expert-busting/
🔎 Learn how to use Suburb Data to analyse property data:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGhDsFFEMdzP5fvfenYvbp0B
=============================================================
Expert Busting SeriesA data-driven investigation into property myths.We fact-check bold claims, expose misleading advice, and reveal what the numbers actually say.Evidence over confidence. Data over hype.
#expertbustingseries #propertymyths #australianproperty #propertyinvesting #datadriveninvesting #suburbdata #DSR #propertytruths #realestateinvesting
=============================================================
DISCLAIMER:Please be aware that the content presented in this video is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on the content of this video, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the Listener, Reader, or Viewer.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by viewers based on the information in this video are at their own risk.

EBS 4: Amenities | Nonsense for Picking Superior Growth

Episode 4 busts the idea that buying near amenities delivers superior results. We compare suburbs with train stations, top schools, beaches, major shopping centres and airports over decades, and also rank suburbs by walk score, finding that price premiums do not translate into better capital growth or yield over time. Where a new amenity appears, any uplift is brief as prices adjust.
We also test the claim that so-called A grade properties beat the median and show the gap narrows rather than widens.
The message is simple. Treat amenities as price features, not growth engines, and focus instead on supply constraints, planning limits and real buyer competition.
Timestamps:00:00 - Introduction00:55 - Amenities listed01:51 - Apples vs Oranges analogy05:06 - When a new amenity appears08:46 - Historical data10:35 - Sydney suburbs with and without train stations16:23 - Melbourne suburbs with and without train stations20:54 - Brisbane suburbs with and without train stations27:10 - Melbourne suburbs with good schools vs without30:25 - Sydney suburbs with beaches vs without34:32 - Suburbs near large shopping centres vs others36:45 - Sydney and Melbourne suburbs near airports vs others40:17 - Walkscore49:37 - Standard deviation of average as a percentage58:47 - Conclusion
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🎙️ Watch all Expert Busting episodes:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGg14F66DTdoZuS63mUJwJ82
📚 Read the full data-backed articles:https://suburbdata.com.au/education-expert-busting/
🔎 Learn how to use Suburb Data to analyse property data:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWD8h9iMOyGhDsFFEMdzP5fvfenYvbp0B
=============================================================
Expert Busting SeriesA data-driven investigation into property myths.We fact-check bold claims, expose misleading advice, and reveal what the numbers actually say.Evidence over confidence. Data over hype.
#expertbustingseries #propertymyths #australianproperty #propertyinvesting #datadriveninvesting #suburbdata #DSR #propertytruths #realestateinvesting
=============================================================
DISCLAIMER:Please be aware that the content presented in this video is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
• The information provided is not tailored to your individual circumstances, and we do not consider your specific financial situation.• It is strongly recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any financial decisions based on the content of this video, as we have neither offered nor provided legal, financial, or taxation advice to the Listener, Reader, or Viewer.• We do not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence as defined by section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and are not authorised to provide financial services.• Any actions taken by viewers based on the information in this video are at their own risk.